(Top Secret) [puis déclassifié]
- Introduction. Formuler les tactiques possibles d'objets volants signalés au-dessus des U.S. suppose dès le début que des conclusions fermes ont été atteintes sur à la fois l'existence et l'origine des objets volants signalés. Le status
actuel de l'information sur ces incidents et l'analyse globale ne permet pas la substantiation de telles conclusions. Cependant, l'absence de telles conclusions fermes pointe vers la nécessité d'une analyse statistique immédiate et saine de tout aspect de la situation et n'exclut pas un examen concurrent des incidents signalés pour développer des explications de leurs tactiques possibles. Ce dernier sera utile à une date future si l'existence et l'origine des objets volants devait être définitivement établie. Par conséquent, l'analyse qui suit des informations disponibles est avancée afin de présenter les preuves de l'existence effective d'un certain type d'objet volant et to relate same to
tactical purposes for which the objects are possibly designed. The foll
owing discussion must be considered a provisional analysis, pending a
further detailed analysis of all aspects of the problem.
- Certains aspects concernant les incidents d'objet volant. A cursory examination of evidence on reported incidents has been
made and it is possible to cite certain generalities which it appears
may be borne out when detailed analyses have been completed.
Among the incidents reported there are many
statements by reliable and experienced persons which tend to confirm
that flying objects have been seen. The description of such objects
seems to fall roughly into three categories: (1) Silver disks or balls,
approximating a Horten wing type aircraft; (2) Balls of fire of various
colors and intensities; (3) Cigar or pencil-shaped objects similar in
appearance to V-2 type rockets in horizontal flight. The numbers of
configurations might be further reduced with the following
considerations in mind: Silver disks or balls have, for the greater
part, been observed in daylight and a number under clear weather
conditions with visibility unlimited. In most instances, balls of fire
have been observed at night. Cigar, or pencil-shaped objects have been
sighted in fewer numbers but with about equal distribution in daylight
and at night. A few accounts tell of the disks having a rough
cigar-shape when viewed while maneuvering. Some of the disks are d
escribed as having luminosity in daylight. It therefore is possible
that a single type of object may be involved in all sightings, and
differences in description may result from viewing the objects at
various angles and under differing conditions of visibility.
The above tends to indicate that
some type object has been seen and the possibility exists that the
object or objects seen are conventional domestic devices, such as
weather balloons, test rockets, or jet-equipped aircraft with pancake
or flying wing configurations.
The possibility exists that the
reporting of flying objects may have been influenced by earlier reports
on similar incidents in Scandinavia and Central Europe. The publication
in newspaper of details on such incidents, both foreign and domestic,
may have induced some of the description provided in reported domestic
incidents. However, one of the earliest reported sightings in the U.S.
was the one observed by U.S. Weather Bureau personnel in Avril 1947, at
Richmond (Virginie), and on the basis of this one report it appears that
the disks are not balloons. It would seem that this sighting was not
influenced by the reports of foreign incidents, the newspaper accounts
of domestic incidents, nor by misidentification of a conventional
object.
Although reported domestic incidents are
widely scattered throughout the U.S., frequency of sighting and number
of observers per sighting assumes a definable pattern. There is a large
concentration of sightings along the Eastern Seaboard; another large
concentration throughout the Western Coast states, and a few sightings
in the Middle West. Distribution of incidents by configuration of
object and description of maneuverability is approximately equal in
each of these areas and this is believed to further substantiate the
possibility that one type of object might have been observed in
different aspects of flight.
If sightings are induced by rumor, it seems
unusual that more incidents have not been reported from the areas with
high concentration of population. Reports from such areas would also
have greater facility in channeling either to newspaper or official
reporting agencies. For the most part, sightings have been made in
fairly open country where there are few restrictions to visibility,
which may indicate that obstructed vision has reduced sightings in
built-up areas.
It therefore seems that some type of flying
object has been observed; the identification of its origin requires the
competion (sic) of other analyses.
- Origine possible des objets volants inhabituels. Etant donné, upon the completion of analyses, it is indicated that
some or all of the reported flying objects over the U.S. sont d'origine étrangère, les objets pourraient d'un point de vue logique, être considéré comme soviétiques. Il est évident d'après les caractéristiques de performance attribuées
aux objets non-identifiés at this time that if they are foreign, they
involve efficiencies of performance which have not been realized in any
operational airborne device in this country. It would, therefore, be a
mistake to analyze the technical aspects of the situation within the
limits of our own knowledge of practical developments. It is more
desirable to consider then the outer limits of possible Soviet
developments and objectives in attempting to formulate some idea of the
tactics which might be involved.
First of all, the scientific objectives of
the URSS have been stated many times and indicated in many forms.
The most clearcut statement of this objective is probably contained in
the preamble to the Fourth Five-year Plan (1946-50) which states that
the objective of Soviet science is to overtake and surpass the
scientific and technical developments of the capitalist nations. It
apparently would be an impossible task for the Soviet Union to
accomplish such an objective by proceeding step-by-step along the same
lines of development already achieved in the capitalist nations. This
would mean that it would be necessary to rapidly proceed through each
phase of aeronautical development that has already been accomplished in
this country, and this probably would never have any prospects of
accelerating Soviet development beyond any point reached by the U.S.
The obvious answer to accomplish their objective of not only
overtaking, but surpassing the capitalist countries would be a scient
ific shortcut. This possibility is not so remote when examined on the
basis of our knowledge of the current situation in the URSS.
Provided Soviet emphasis was given to the most promising and advanced
ideas acquired from Germany in 1945 and the work aided by German
scientists, the possibility of catching up and possibly surpassing
other nations in technical developments becomes more realistic. It
becomes even more realistic if the Soviets have shown a tendency to
concentrate on certain developments which have still not received a
maximum of priority in our own programs.
Il est connu que l'URSS a depuis 1945 enlisted the service of Dr. Guenther Bock, a German who headed all
development of low aspect ratio (flying wing) type aircraft in Germany.
Dr. Bock is believed to be the top German scientist in charge at TSAGI
and TSIAM qui sont des organisations du type "Commandement du Matériel Aérien" en URSS. Further, it is believed that Dr. Bock has made available all
German plans for flying wing type aircraft to the Soviets. Among the
designs considered by the Germans and possibly exploited by the
URSS, are jet-propelled, flying wing type aircraft whose
configuration would be similar to descriptions of certain objects
reported flying over the U.S. The estimated speeds of such aircraft are
within range of the lower limits of speed attributed to flying objects
over the U.S. It Is not impossible that emphasis on surpassing foreign
developments has led to unusual progress in fuels and propulsion by the
URSS. In connection with possible advancemen
ts in the field of fuels and propulsion, it should be observed that
the
Russian oil situation (regardless of estimated oil reserves) is quite
different from that in the U.S. For example, U.S. oil industry is
prepared to turn out tremendous quantities of highly fractionated
petroleum products, while the URSS. cannot reasonably approach such
capabilities. This consideration dictates different solutions on fuels
for propulsion in the two countries and in turn, dictates the direction
taken in development of jet motors or the use of other propulsive
devices. We must therefore, arrive at the conclusion that any Soviet
device which may have made its appearance over the U.S. as described,
would possess unusual performance characteristics which, in all
probability, would include unusual range. The possibility that they
could have been launched at fairly close range should not be discarded.
- Raisons ou tactiques possibles pour l'utilisation d'appareils soviétiques non conventionnels au-dessus des U.S. Predicated on all the foregoing assumptions, des appareils soviétiques non conventionnels pourraient avoir été envoyés voler au-dessus des U.S. pour l'une, toutes, ou une combinaison des raisons suivantes :
- Pour nier la confiance U.S. en la bombe atomique comme l'arme la plus avancée et la plus décisive. Si les objets ont été utilisé dans un sens de propagande, il serait raisonnable de supposer que les soviétiques choisiraient d'abord d'effrayer les nations pro-américaines en Europe avec l'apparence d'une arme radicalement nouvelle pour contrecarrer la capacité des U.S. à obtenir une pleine efficacité de propagande avec la bombe atomique. On se souviendra que les objets étranges sont d'abord apparus au-dessus des pays scandinaves en 1946. Les objets observés à cet endroit avaient des caractéristiques inhabituelles de portée et de performance. Alors que cette démonstration au-dessus des pays scandinaves avait lieu, les U.S. menaient une campagne vigoureuse pour l'alignement économique et politique de ces nations avec d'autres nations occidentales pro-américaines. Lorsque ces incidents diminuèrent, des objets volants étranges commençèrent à être observés à un rythme croissant au-desus des U.S. La conclusion
sur ce point est que les objets volants pourraient avoir été utilisés pour effrayer à la fois les nations européennes et les U.S. avec l'apparence d'un nouvel appareil, and that failure to identify such a Soviet object would give
them invaluable indication that U.S. development is far behind that of
the Soviets. Except for this indication, it is believed that the use of
the objects to promote fear has been worthless in that the U.S. public
has tended to characterize these incidents entirely as hallucinations
by "crack pots", misidentification of conventional objects, or that
they represent a secret American project which should not be
publicized. Any fear that might result from Soviet use will come only
by a discovery that the objects have been Soviet aircraft and that they
involve radical developments which are in advance of our own
accomplishments.
- Pour la reconnaissance photographique. Il est possible que les soviétiques ont employé les objets volants pour la collecte de renseignement photographique ou la cartographie de certaines régions des U.S. L'action evasive employée par tous les objets observés indique pas tant une tentative d'éviter d'être vu, qu'une tentative d'éviter la révélation du type exact d'appareil volant et de sa mission. Les observations d'objets au-dessus des U.S. ont été plus intenses dans les états côtiers de l'est et de l'ouest. De plus, des observations d'objets volants ont été faites près de Oak Ridge, dans le Tennessee, Las Cruces, au Nouveau Mexique, et dans la région générale des Hanford Works dans l'Oregon. Généralement, des observations n'ont pas été faites au-dessus de ce que nous considérons comme des zones industrielles stratégiques.
La raison à cela pourrait être soit que les objets volants n'ont été observés qu'en route vers ou de retour de missions au-dessus de ces zones stratégiques concentrées, ou que les soviétiques ont obtenu suffisamment d'informations durant leur liaison de la 2nde guerre mondiale avec l'industrie U.S. pour satisfaire leurs besoins en renseignement et ont un besoin plus actif d'information sur les industries et zones qui ne leur étaient pas accessibles pendant les contacts de la 2nde guerre mondiale. Ceci est intéressant relativement aux observations près de Oak Ridge, Las Cruces et dans la région générale des Hanford Works puisque ces établissements
n'étaient pas, et ne sont pas, accessibles aux collecteurs soviétiques de renseignement photographique.
- Test des défenses U. S.. Il est possible que l'utilisation d'objets volants soviétiques au-dessus des U.S. n'ait pour but que de déterminer la capacité des défenses U.S. à repérer un appareil étranger. Cela serait d'une importance extrême pour l'URSS dans l'éventualité où une attaque one-way all-out de bombardiers stratégiques
soviétiques serait prévue. La capacité à opérer au-dessus des U.S. uninhibited at a
time when the U.S. is supposedly re-arming and putting great stress on
defenses would provide valuable information on which to base estimates
for probability of success in bombing strategic objectives in the U. S.
- Familiarisation de vols au-dessus du territoire U.S.. Cette raison possible est peut-être la plus improbable. Il est supposé que, si ce but devait être impliqué, d'autres objectifs sont probablement aussi accomplis dans son exécution. Etant donné que l'URSS a des appareils d'une performance inhabituellement élevée ils pourraient trouver avantageux de se familiariser avec la topographie des U.S. en anticipation
de missions de combat futures vers des cibles stratégiques.
- Conclusion. La
conclusion qu'un certain type d'objet volant a été observé au-dessus des U.S. semble être étayée. Il n'est pas connu à l'heure actuelle si ces observations sont des méprises d'appareils domestiques lancés, de phénomènes naturels ou d'appareils étrangers non-conventionnels. Il est, par conséquent, impossible de fournir une quelconque explication fiable à leur apparition au-dessus des U.S. ou des tactiques qu'ils pourraient employer si les objets observés incluent de quelconques développements dans les domaines aéronautiques. Il est de la même manière impossible à l'heure actuelle de contenir des discussions sur les caractéristiques de performance ou les tactiques possibles dans les limites du sens commun, if for no other reason than the fact that
proof of the existence of a foreign development of this type would
necessarily introduce considerations of new principals and means not
yet considered practical possibilities in our own research and
development.